The FAO and OECD expect poultry production to increase the most by 2030. Production is expected to increase by 17.5 percent to 153.5 million tons.
Global meat production will increase by 2030, especially in Asia and Africa, FAO and OECD expect. Among animal species, poultry is the big winner.
Increases in global meat production and consumption will be lower from 2021 to 2030 than in the previous decade, reports fleischwirtschaft.de. This forecast is found in the report on the development of the global agricultural market published jointly by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). According to the report, meat production is expected to increase by 43.8 million metric tons, or 13.3 percent, to 373.8 million metric tons by 2030, based on the 2018-2020 baseline, while consumption is expected to increase by 13.5 percent to 371.7 million metric tons. Compared to the previous decade, the annual growth rate in production would slow from 1.42 percent to 1.16 percent, and in consumption from 1.43 percent to 1.17 percent.
Strongest demand in Africa
According to the forecast, Asia will make the largest contribution to rising global meat production, with an increase of 26.2 million, or 19.3 percent, to 162.1 million metric tons. China will be responsible for this, with an increase of 19.7 percent to almost 95 million tons, as not only pig stocks but also poultry production is expected to increase significantly there following the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF). Higher meat volumes are also expected for the United States and Brazil.
The largest relative increase is expected to occur in Africa, at 25.6 percent to 22.9 million tons. About 84 percent of the additional meat is projected to be produced in developing countries by 2030, although this includes China. The European Union is the only region expected to see a decrease in meat production, down 2.5 percent to 43.2 million tons.
Hardly any growth left in beef
Looking at the individual types of meat, the FAO and OECD expect poultry to show the strongest growth by 2030, with production expected to increase by 17.5 percent to 153.5 million metric tons. "White meat" has a favorable feed conversion ratio, is inexpensive and easy to prepare. It is therefore increasingly in demand worldwide, even if consumption growth is expected to slow by 2030 compared to the previous decade. For pork, production is expected to increase by 12.7 percent to 127.3 million in this decade, with China alone accounting for more than 70 percent of the increase due to the need to catch up after ASF. In contrast, global production of beef is forecast to increase by only a below-average 5.8 percent overall to 74.1 million tons by 2030.